On April 28, Iran's state TV broadcasted the first of three presidential debates, which supposedly focused on social issues. The six candidates, however, were quick to turn the conversation into a heated battle over the country's economic conditions.
The hardline candidate Ebrahim Raisi clearly decided to stay calm and collected during the debate. He avoided any major confrontation with other candidates by sticking to his talking points and not talking out of turn. Regardless of the question, Raisi hammered the key populist policies of alleviating poverty, reducing unemployment, and providing government housing. He reminded the public of his religious devotion and sense of public service, referring to himself as a humble custodian of Imam Reza’s Shrine who has devoted his career to supporting the needy.
Raisi appeared as a sidelined candidate, considering the heated debate between Jahangiri and Ghalibaf that dominated a significant portion of the evening. Raisi also did not come off as a strong orator and spoke in a very calm clerical tone certainly not fit to energize the public.
Raisi has two more opportunities in the following debates to challenge other candidates and better detail his policy proposals. Raisi needs to intensify his rhetoric in order to pander to his hardline base who are expecting a more tenacious stance against Rouhani.
Compared to Raisi, Ghalibaf is a better-known political figure and technocrat with a long history of public service, so he has an established support base. Ghalibaf and Rouhani’s rivalry can also be stretched back to the last presidential debates where they had a number of intense exchanges on live television. Ghalibaf is an articulate and eloquent speaker and very knowledgeable about the nuances of public policy. This makes him a strong presidential contender that does not shy away from a confrontation.
Rouhani and Jahangiri's strategy of sparring with Ghalibaf certainly had an impact on sidelining Raisi. Iranian press has labeled the strategy as the "battle between shadow candidates." Jahangiri and Ghalibaf will do the heavy lifting and take the punches during the debates and will eventually drop out in favor of their faction's lead candidates. This strategy is much more accepted within the reformist camp, however it is still unclear if the conservatives are willing to fully embrace the approach. It is uncertain if Ghalibaf would be willing to eventually step aside in favor of Raisi.
Jahangiri and Rouhani did a much better job at addressing the questions in a more nuanced manner than the other candidates. They demonstrated their policy knowledge and understanding of the specific steps necessary to solve the country's problems.
It is very difficult to assess the impact of the first debate on the working class. Previous populist candidates like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had a tremendous amount of success by appealing to the masses. Issues such as job creation, economic growth, inflation, and battling corruption, which were addressed most often by Raisi and Ghalibaf, remain to be the top priorities for blue collar Iranians.
We should not count Ghalibaf out of the presidential race. Despite Jahangiri and Rouhani’s challenges, he had a strong performance. He is an effective speaker and an experienced technocrat in tune with the country's issues. A number of conservative Iranians on social media actually declared Ghalibaf the winner of the first debate. They appreciated his boldness and tenacity in confronting Rouhani and Jahangiri. Ghalibaf went as far as printing the front page of Rouhani's website during the debate's 15-minute intermission to demonstrate Rouhani’s self-contradictions. He showed the page to the camera in order to prove that Rouhani had promised to create 4 million jobs before his election, a promise Rouhani tried to deny at the beginning of this debate.
Prior to the debate, the moderate and reformist camps were hesitant about their strategy of running a shadow candidate, so it was a pleasant surprise to witness Jahangiri's strong performance. He was willing to ‘take the punch’ for Rouhani in the face of Ghalibaf's tenacious attacks. He also demonstrated a very sharp mind when it comes to recalling statistics to back up his camp's claims. Iranians on social media have dubbed him as the nickname "Super Eshaq." There is a strong assumption that he will drop out of the race after the completion of the third debate. If he does not so, he will harm Rouhani by splitting the reformist-moderate votes.